Welcome to Bloomingpeak!
Bloomingpeak's aim is to bring the topic of future energy scarcity into public discussion. This coming energy crisis, a phenomenon that has been called Peak Oil (reflecting peak global production) will have as much to do with a decline in domestic natural gas that will unfold in parallel to rising oil costs. The implications are staggering in effect, and will be realized in commerce, transportation, home heating, plastics and chemical manufacture, agriculture and food production, electricity generation, finance, geopolitics and foreign policy. With petroleum and natural gas accounting for over 60% of our nations energy needs, we regard this as the most pressing problem that our community will be facing in the coming years.
Bloomington & Peak Oil
Oil's rise: How much geology, how much FOREX?
March 11th, 2008
Added a comparison of oil prices in dollars to oil prices in Euros. As you can see from the chart below, a huge component in the rise of oil prices has been not supply demand, but the tanking US dollar.
Since the United States now imports more than two thirds of the oil that it consumes, yet another sign of our country's exit from producing anything of value, it has to buy that oil from other countries, and societies. And they are increasingly seeing the dollars that we use to purchase that oil as worthless, or nearly so. Therefore we have to offer more dollars to make up for the perceived lack of value in dollars.
This, of course, also has a terrifying effect on our balance of payments picture as paper flows out of the country in a hurricane deficit. Scary times.
(Click on graph for full-sized version)
Oil prices hit $107 a barrel
March 10th, 2008
Today. Meanwhile, I made the following graph, using the Energy Information Agency's historic data at http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mer/prices.html .
(Click on image for full-size version)
Data and spreadsheet at http://www.littlebear.com/EIAPRICES.xls
Update production numbers available
January 29th, 2008
As is every two months, updated world oil production numbers are now available. The current spreadsheet covers through October of 2007. Next update in March, 2008.
OilProduction-4.xls
Note a late spike in production, apparently due to increases in Russia, Canada, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Will they be sustained through all of 2007? Check back here in a couple months!
Updated production numbers available
December 5th, 2007
Through August:
OilProduction-3.xls
Updated world oil production spreadsheet available
September 27th, 2007
More EIA data gone wild! Got an update on EIA world production levels, download while it's hot!
OilProduction-2.xls
Mexico: We're out of oil in seven years
August 10th, 2007
Via The Oil Drum:
Mexico, Jul 27 (Prensa Latina) Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) announced that oil reserves may run out in seven years.
...
The director of the state owned company, Jesus Reyes, insisted that these are difficult moments due to a reduction of production in Cantareli, the main oil field in the country.
More at http://www.plenglish.com/article.asp?ID=%7BF1F8B8FE-DA99-4717-8FBD-2B3C4F90FBA3%7D%29&language=EN
Note that Mexico is the third-largest supplier of oil to the United States. It supplies us with nearly as much oil as Saudi Arabia- i.e. about 6% of our consumption.
What can we expect, in terms of stability of our southern neighbor, when the source of 60% of Mexico's export earnings disappear? What can we expect when we lose 6% of our oil supply?
EIA Data gone wild!
August 2nd, 2007
Using the Energy Information Administration's data, specifically tables 11.1a and 11.1b, I've put together a spreadsheet and graphs showing world oil production from 1973 to April of this year.
I'll be updating that spreadsheet regularly (new information is due at the end of August). In the meantime, you can download it from:
http://www.littlebear.com/OilProduction.xls
Being fuel-savvy, not fuelish
July 19th, 2007
Last year I prepared the following powerpoint, as a way to help local government officials plan for coming fuel price increases. Enjoy:
http://www.littlebear.com/CountyFuel.ppt
Twilight in the Desert?
July 19th, 2007
The United States Energy Information Administration publishes a monthly report of world oil production, by region, at:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/supply.html
Table 1.1c includes production for Saudi Arabia. Of interest, for those of us who follow Saudi Arabia, on the premise that "As Saudi Arabia goes, so goes the world" (M. Simmons), is the fact that Saudi production has been falling.
For the past two years.
Could this mean the peak in world production has occurred? I think so.
Here's an Excel spreadsheet into which I've plugged the most current numbers from Table 1.1c.
Feel free to update it yourself when August's numbers come out:
http://www.littlebear.com/SaudiProduction.xls
Bloomingpeak relaunched!
January 30th, 2007
Just a short note to note the relaunch of Bloomingpeak! We've moved to a new server and papa's got a brand new bag!
Download Richard Heinberg's fall presentation.
May 11th, 2006
Courtesy of Greg Travis, Richard's presentation at the Buskirk-Chumley Theater
last fall has been edited to include his powerpoint slides. The video will also
be playing on CATS local television (http://www.catstv.net/), so look to their schedule on channel 3 in the coming days.
To download the presentation CLICK THIS LINK
(right-click to download and save). Caution, big (Quicktime) file (160MB)
Dave Rollo will present Peak Oil at the Bloomington Rotary Club.
November 28th, 2005
Dave will present an introduction to Peak Oil at the Bloomington Rotary's weekly
meeting: Tuesday, November 29 in the I.U. Memorial Union's Alumni Hall at
noon.
http://www.bloomingtonrotary.org/
Peter Bane, keynote for the Bloomington Bioneers Conference
October 10th, 2005
Adapting to a post oil future means growing food locally, without fossil fuel inputs, and in a manner that restores rather than depletes the soil. Local food economies are vital to community food security, and are an important means to lighten the human impact on the biosphere.
Permaculture, or permanent agriculture (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permaculture)
integrates human farming into native ecosystems using polyculture rather than crop monocultures, and regenerative soil practices with a minimum of irrigation.
Peter Bane, editor of Permaculture Activist magazine and land use planner at Earthhaven ecovillage will present the keynote for Bloomington's 2005 Bioneers Conference (October 15th). Mr. Bane has worked extensively in creating working examples of diverse permacultures such as artifical wetland greywater treatment facilities, aquaculture systems and agroforestry projects.
His talk, "Education from a Permaculture Perspective," will be at 7pm, on Saturday October 15th in Ballantine Hall on the IU campus.
Bloomington Bioneers October 14-16
October 10th, 2005
The annual Bioneers Conference (http://www.bioneers.org)
in San Rafael, California, is a positive forum for exploring
solutions for many of our most pressing environmental and social challenges. This year Bloomington is one of 17 sites hosting simultaneous satellite conferences, including
local talks and workshops. The theme of our local conference this year is: Sustainability: The Campus- Community Connection. For further information contact David Haberman at dhaberma@indiana.edu.
All events are free and open to the public.
See Calendar for details.
Richard Heinberg to visit Bloomington
August 29th, 2005
Richard Heinberg, a leading authority, author and lecturer on the topic of Peak Oil and its consequences will be visiting Bloomington Wednesday, September 14th at 7pm. He will give a talk titled: Peak Oil: The Challenge and Opportunity of Petroleum's Waning Days at the Buskirk-Chumley Theater (http://www.buskirkchumley.org/) that evening. The talk will serve as the keynote for the Center for Sustainable Living/City of Bloomington's Simply Living Fair.
A core faculty member at the New College in California, Richard (http://www.museletter.com/Richard-Heinberg.html) has traveled extensively for the past year, participating in the ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil) conference in Lisbon, presenting at an energy depletion related food security conference in Dublin, and traveling throughout South Africa for a number of speaking engagements. We are fortunate that he has accepted our invitation to come to our community to present his lecture with the latest information and meet with local city and county representatives. He recently expressed to me his belief that the foundation for spurring change to adapt to energy constraints will take place on the local level - the federal level being effectively frozen due to policy inertia from special interests - and so was very interested in coming to Bloomington.
You are all cordially invited to attend, there is no cost of admission. There will be a book signing and an opportunity to speak with Dr. Heinberg following his talk. Richard has authored two books on the subject of Peak Oil (The Party's Over and Powerdown), and both are highly recommended.
